My feelings on this are not one individual can be giving that title. Many get lucky but luck only happens occasional. Then there are the side variable such as weather conditions, disputes among the players sand mental state of the players. A handicapper that just picks games without close examination is one that I would avoid. For effective baseball handicapping you need to follow a formula. There is no government rating nor is there any real tracking system. Baseball season is very long and there are many ups and downs for every team. Luck has a lot to do with it. Part of being a good handicapper is promoting yourself as one. There is no license or certification required. It is better to be lucky than be good, right. Just what is a baseball handicapper? According to Wikipedia: Baseball Handicapping is the practice of assigning advantage through scoring compensation or other advantage given to different contestants to equalize the chances of winning. That is the easy part just about all handicappers claim to be the best.
The best baseball handicappers in one who thoroughly follows the game, uses a proven system along with all those miscellaneous variables to determine their selections. A good handicapper will take all this information and plug into their handicapping formula.
Now you are probably reading this article because you want to know who is best. Remember to distinguish the difference between just lucky and picking the right side. Be consistent with your bets and use proper money management and you will the best baseball handicapper.
I would define the best baseball handicapper a one who is truly knowledgeable on the sports. You just start analyzing ball games and select your winners. The only way to fully grade a handicappers picks is over the entire season.
The fact is anyone can claim to be good at baseball handicapping. Anyone can create a formula and start using it, but it has to be tested. Baseball handicapping is not all based on skill. Follow the game, use a proven baseball betting formula, there are many available. You might have a nice run for a week, start thinking you have the best system in the world then lose the next 10 games. This formula must be battle tested. They must be up to date with all trades, injuries, trends and current statistics. Let’s make it simple and say that a baseball handicapper is a person that analyzes two baseball teams and attempt to picks the winner.
Now a proven winning formula is mandatory. Don’t confuse being lucky for being good.. I am a true believe that anyone can be the best baseball handicapper if they so desire. The only way to test a formula is to use through an entire baseball season
Former Yomiuri Giants pitcher Shoki Kasahara has admitted to his involvement in illegal gambling at a hearing held at the Tokyo District Court on Monday, Kyodo news agency reported.
The 25-year-old was suspended by Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB), the country’s professional baseball governing body, in November for illegally betting on games, which included Major League Baseball and Japanese high school games.
(Reporting by Nivedita Shankar in Bengaluru; Editing by Amlan Chakraborty)
The NPB which prohibits professional players from betting on games, handed a one-year ban on another Giants pitcher Kyosuke Takagi for illegal betting in March.
($1 = 101.3600 yen)
Kasahara is said to have aided a former restaurant operator’s betting scheme by collecting money from two other former Giants players, and gambled a total of 1.2 million yen ($11,838.99) himself between September 2014 and August 2015, the report said.
Thanks to the juice, the only one who profits in this scenario is the bookmaker. “Because alcohol clouds your judgment and usually helps you to make rash decisions you usually wouldn’t otherwise make. The only touts bettors should consider are the ones who talk about the long haul and realistic winning percentages, which are in the upper 50 percent to lower 60 percent range.”
“In an average season, fewer than one bettor in twelve turns a profit,” Gordon says. “Over the course of several seasons, the percentage of bettors who turn a profit is minuscule.”
So, how much should you bet a game?
Another difference between squares and sharps is how they approach betting on game day.
6. So underdogs tend to be slightly undervalued – except by the sharps.”
“The biggest mistake that amateur bettors make is they increase their bets when they are losing,” Sevransky says. If North Texas is his best bet on a Saturday then that is his bet.
Certainly not back into the pockets of the average bettor. “In the NFL, a game will often be totally turned around by one or two plays, or even a single penalty. Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd.”
Even Hollywood is not immune – think Two for the Money with Al Pacino and Matthew McConaughey.
Michael Konik, a sports writer and best-selling author of The Smart Money (Simon & Schuster 2006), explains why it is so hard for the recreational gambler to win at betting on football. “Teams play inspired ball at home.
“There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home,” Moseman says. There is a wealth of information on the Internet; it is just up to you to find it and research it daily.”
And remember, in the immortal words of “Fast” Eddie Felson, “Money won is twice as sweet as money earned.”
“The bookies fear and despise a tiny coterie of professional bettors known as ‘the sharps,’” Konik says. “Thus, the bookies love and cherish the squares.”
“The talking heads on TV know nothing about sports betting,” says Sevransky. Money Management – “This is without a doubt the most important aspect of betting on sports and possibly the most neglected,” says Morey “Doc” Moseman, a professional gambler and sports consultant with DocSports.com for nearly 40 years. Avoid Exotic Bets – “For very skilled handicappers, with a proven track record, there can, at least in theory, be value in betting parlays,” says Gordon on the type of bet that combines two or more individual wagers. Bet at the Right Time – “The sharp bettors tend to bet underdogs, and they tend to bet them early,” Moseman says. If you like an underdog, it is best to get your bet in as late as possible, where there is heavy action from squares on favorites. “In trying to bamboozle potential customers, many services make claims about having scouts all over the country that give them inside information and promise 70 or even 80 percent winners, as if the bookmakers were the biggest suckers in the world.
9. “As for me, the best bet in football is betting the point spread or over/under totals on individual games. The NFL, for example, will have very similar numbers at most of the betting shops you visit. In fact, sports bettors must pick 52.4 percent winners just to break even.”
Newspapers and popular sports sites routinely publish the lines or point spreads for games, and football insiders offer their picks to viewers each week on ESPN and other cable networks. To be a successful sports bettor you need to operate with a clear mind.”
“The standard bet requires gamblers to lay $11 for every $10 they want to win with the extra $1 or 10 percent known as the juice,” Konik says. “He is not jaded by teams and does not bet with his heart. And why not? We have unconditional love for the sport and betting $50 or $100 on a game adds an extra rush of adrenaline. If you want advice about sports betting, find someone who has a successful track record. If you are going to go with a favorite, it is best to place your bet early in the week when the sharps are laying heavy money on the points. But, when you’re struggling, that’s when you want to reduce your bet size until you get out of your slump. Giving 11 to 10 odds is almost always the cheapest price you can give.”
3. Avoid Chasing Bets – “Don’t do it! There is no worse way to mismanage your bankroll than to chase your bets after a losing day,” cautions Moseman on the dangerous practice of trying to immediately win back your losses. “Squares usually bet later in the week and they tend to pick the favorites. On college you will be able to find different lines at different sports books. “The key to proper money management is to be sure not to bet more than you can afford to lose.”
So, how much are we gambling each football season?
But that doesn’t mean you have to bet like a “square” and throw away your hard-earned money.
“A square is the average, unsophisticated gambler whose decision making is based on hunches, media manipulation, or spurious systems that cannot overcome the bookmaker’s inherent mathematical advantage,” Konik explains. Consider Underdogs – “In the long-run, it’s easier to win betting on the underdog,” Konik says. He loses year after year, according to Dan Gordon, a top football handicapper and author of How to Beat the Sports Books (Cardoza Publishing 2005).
“A square or recreational player might have a vague plan, but after two Corona’s he will definitely run to the window and make a hasty decision on the USC-Notre Dame game because he wants to be involved in the party atmosphere,” Vaccaro says.